Treading water near records: S&P 500 awaits its next wave
SPY•S&P 500 holds near record highs
E-mini S&P 500 futures are off around 0.35% early on Thursday morning, suggesting a modestly lower start for the benchmark index.
Still, the S&P 500 remains within striking distance of its record highs.
The index ended Wednesday at 7,572.40, leaving it just 0.49% below its June 2 record close of 7,609.78 and 0.64% below its June 2 intraday peak of 7,620.90.
Before the index can challenge those highs, traders will be watching the July 10 high at 7,579.83, which may act as interim resistance. If the S&P 500 breaks into new record territory, the 8,000 area may come into focus as the next major upside target.
On the downside, initial support sits at the July 13 low of 7,506.41. Below that, attention shifts to a weekly Gann Line near 7,465 and the rising 50-day moving average, which finished Wednesday at 7,454 and is expected to climb to around 7,460 on Thursday.
One notable feature is the market's resilience above the 50-day moving average. Since rebounding from the March 30 low and reclaiming that level on April 8, the S&P 500 has closed below it only once — on June 26 — and quickly bounced back.
If support levels begin to give way, particularly with a break below the July 8 low of 7,421.82, it could signal growing downside pressure. In that scenario, the next levels to watch would be the June 26 low at 7,294.18 and the June 9 trough at 7,237.85.
A deeper decline could then put the 7,000 area into focus, where the rising 200-day moving average could provide additional support.
Markets open mixed as data and yields move
Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 1%, S&P 500 futures are lower, and the Dow is edging higher.
Initial jobless claims came in at 208,000 versus 217,000 expected, while July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data was 41.4 versus 13 expected.
