Treasury yields rise ahead of inflation and jobs data; oil dips
TLT•U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly as investors awaited inflation and jobs data, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest level since mid-May 2004. Traders priced a 68% chance of an October Fed rate hike, while August job openings fell to 7.08 million, below the 7.23 million consensus.
1. Yields edge higher
Treasury yields rose slightly in a choppy session as oil prices dipped and investors awaited Wednesday’s final August PCE reading and Friday’s September jobs report. The 30-year yield touched its highest level since mid-May 2004, while the 2-year yield earlier reached its highest since late May 2024.
2. Rate expectations and data
Traders priced a roughly 68% probability of an October Fed rate hike, up from 55% a week earlier. August job openings fell to 7.08 million from July’s 7.34 million, below the 7.23 million consensus.
3. Treasury yield figures
The 10-year yield rose 0.9 basis points to 5.251%, and the 30-year yield gained 1.63 basis points to 5.5783%. The 2-year yield rose 0.44 basis points to 4.928%, while the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was positive 32.1 basis points.
