Trex Misses Q4 Revenue at $285.3M, Sees 13.7% Q1 Revenue Decline
Trex posted Q4 revenue of $285.3 million, up 22.1% year-on-year, but missed estimates and cut full-year guidance; Q1 revenue is expected to decline 13.7% y/y after a 14.4% drop last year. Sector peers reported mixed Q4s—Builders FirstSource saw a 12.1% revenue decline, Simpson gained 4.2%—while Trex shares have been flat.
1. Q4 Performance Recap
Trex posted Q4 revenue of $285.3 million, representing a 22.1% year-on-year increase, but still fell short of analyst estimates. The company also reduced its full-year revenue guidance after multiple revenue-estimate misses over the past year.
2. Q1 Revenue Outlook
Analysts forecast Trex’s Q1 revenue to decline 13.7% year-on-year, mirroring the 14.4% drop recorded in the same quarter last year. This projection reflects ongoing housing market headwinds and persistent competitive pressures in the composite decking segment.
3. Peer Comparisons and Market Sentiment
Builders FirstSource reported a 12.1% revenue decline in Q4, missing estimates by 2.8%, while Simpson posted a 4.2% revenue gain, topping forecasts by 1.6%. Trex shares have traded flat over the past month against a 7.1% average rally among home construction materials peers, with a consensus price target of $44.58 versus the current $41.75.