China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has opened a formal probe into Trip.com’s hotel booking operations, citing potential anti-competitive behavior. The investigation focuses on exclusivity deals with major hotel chains and the company’s strategic stakes in rivals such as Tongcheng and Qunar. Trip.com currently commands more than 60% of China’s online travel market through a mix of direct operations and investments. Following the announcement, the stock plunged 22% over four trading days, underscoring investor anxiety over possible heavy fines or forced divestitures that could reshape Trip.com’s domestic footprint.

Despite short-term regulatory overhang, Trip.com is well positioned to capture the ongoing shift toward experience-driven spending, particularly among younger demographics. The company has accelerated its overseas expansion, opening new offices in Southeast Asia and Europe during the past year and launching localized booking platforms in six additional markets. Even under a conservative scenario with a worst-case fine, Trip.com’s 2026 price-earnings multiple remains attractive relative to peers, supported by projected double-digit revenue growth and robust free cash flow generation driven by outbound travel demand and major international events.

From a technical perspective, Trip.com has registered a 12.6% decline over the past four weeks, placing it in oversold territory according to relative strength index readings below 30. This suggests that selling pressure may be exhausted and sets the stage for a potential trend reversal. Wall Street analysts have been revising earnings estimates upward for the next two fiscal years, reflecting confidence in Trip.com’s recovery prospects once the regulatory review concludes.