Trump handouts intensify economic Bermuda Triangle
SPY•Fed faces an imperfect path forward
The only unifying theme among these quandaries is that they are all at least partly self-inflicted. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's reactive bond buying muzzles the intended signals, with quickly rebounding yields eating away at his credibility. Trump’s fiscally dangerous new pledge to send out checks if his party retains congressional power after November's midterm elections evokes earlier empty promises. Where are the payouts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency savings or the commander-in-chief's highly touted tariff dividends?
This inscrutable mess probably leaves Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to try and steady the ship by raising interest rates. It would be an imperfect and incomplete step that also defies Trump's avowed desire for lower borrowing costs. It would be no mystery at all, however, if the economic vortex makes markets' faith disappear.




