Analysts say Trump has failed to heed the central lessons of the post-9/11 era, which began after al Qaeda militants crashed planes into New York’s World Trade Center and the Pentagon outside Washington, killing nearly 3,000 people.
Those include the steep political downsides of long wars and the dangers posed by an entrenched foe fighting for its survival.
The attacks led to decades of conflict, starting with the invasion of Afghanistan, where al Qaeda leaders were sheltering, and followed by the 2003 invasion of Iraq, based on what turned out to be faulty intelligence that it was developing weapons of mass destruction.
The twin wars undertaken by President George W. Bush overstretched the U.S. military and destabilized the Middle East.
The resulting U.S. public backlash helped fuel Trump’s rise a decade ago, and he won a second term in 2024 vowing to avoid military adventurism and focus on Americans’ economic concerns.
But similar to how the Bush administration underestimated the insurgencies the U.S. would face in Iraq and Afghanistan, Trump and his aides have miscalculated Iran’s resiliency and ability to throttle a fifth of the world’s energy shipments, analysts say.
Notably, Trump’s "Operation Epic Fury" launched alongside Israel on February 28 was not precipitated by a 9/11-type national trauma but was deemed by critics to be a war of choice. Experts have disputed Trump’s claims that Tehran’s nuclear program posed an imminent threat to the U.S.
Iran may be taking a page from Afghanistan’s Taliban, who returned to power five years ago after a chaotic U.S. withdrawal, that a determined foe can outlast Washington’s superior firepower while domestic pressure erodes its resolve.
The Iran conflict has also illustrated the cost of going to war with few allies on board.
Bush secured significant international support before launching his Iraq and Afghan campaigns, though that backing waned over time.
By contrast, Trump attacked Iran with little prior consultation or explanation and has found European and Asian leaders mostly resistant to his demands for assistance.
Relations with Trump had already been strained by his threat to seize Greenland, his questioning of NATO’s utility, his reduction of weapons supplies to Ukraine and his sweeping tariffs on trade partners.
SPY•
