Trump's Iran threat renews Gulf fears of a war it didn't choose
SPY•Donald Trump threatened another strike on Iran, with four European officials saying the US had enough forces in the region to attack at short notice. Gulf states fear Iranian retaliation could hit US bases and civilian infrastructure, and are pushing for diplomacy.
1. Gulf states fear retaliation
Trump’s renewed threat to strike Iran has raised concern among Gulf allies that US bases in the region could make host countries targets for Iranian retaliation. Four European officials said the US had amassed enough forces and assets to attack at short notice, possibly within the week. One official said war was coming, while Egypt’s foreign minister warned another round would be more dangerous and destructive than the last.
2. Iran's possible targets
Iranian officials have told Reuters that Tehran has drawn up target lists for a further US-Israeli attack, including military bases and undersea communications cables. Energy infrastructure, desalination plants, communications networks and visible targets in Gulf cities could also be at risk. Officials said a US attack would likely target Iranian nuclear sites, including research and development facilities, but might only weaken Tehran’s capabilities.
3. Diplomacy to avert conflict
Gulf officials fear a conflict whose consequences they would bear but have limited power to shape. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials last month, and Qatari officials met with Iranian counterparts over the weekend. UAE senior official Anwar Gargash said the UAE hoped for a diplomatic breakthrough but was “braced for the worst.”
