Trump’s Iran war pause is as costly as new strikes: Bousso
USO•Gulf crude exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels, but shipping and insurance costs remain about 10 times higher. The article argues that a prolonged pause without a durable US-Iran agreement could keep Gulf energy operations costly and risky.
1. Exports recover, costs persist
Average Gulf crude exports have reached 16.7 million barrels per day since the start of October, just below the pre-war average of 17 million bpd. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 10.5 million bpd, compared with 13.5 million bpd before the war. Freight and insurance costs remain about 10 times pre-war levels.
2. Shipping remains exposed
The International Maritime Organization tracked 131 confirmed incidents near the Strait of Hormuz from the war’s start on February 28 through November 9, including 35 in October. Gulf exporters have used convoys, routes close to Oman’s coast under US Navy protection, and ship-to-ship transfers to limit exposure.
3. A fragile pause
Trump said he would hold off on new military action after appeals from Gulf allies, while US forces continue to build up in the Middle East and mediation efforts continue. The article says the pause may be tactical, and that unresolved conflict could keep shipping dangerous and energy infrastructure vulnerable.
