Trump’s Iran war pause is as costly as new strikes: Bousso
USO•Gulf energy producers are adapting to continuing risks from the Iran war, with freight and insurance costs about 10 times pre-war levels even as crude exports recover. Brent fell below $90 a barrel, while attacks and the risk of renewed strikes could keep operating costs elevated.
1. Exports recover, risks persist
Average traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has reached 10.5 million barrels per day since the start of October, below the pre-war 13.5 million. Including alternative routes, Gulf crude exports averaged 16.7 million barrels per day, close to the pre-war 17 million.
2. Workarounds add costs
The International Maritime Organization tracked 131 confirmed incidents near Hormuz from the start of the war on February 28 through November 9, including 35 in October. Exporters are using convoys, routes near Oman under US Navy protection and ship-to-ship transfers; freight and insurance costs remain about 10 times pre-war levels.
3. Pause may not last
Trump said he would hold off on new military action after appeals from Gulf allies, but US forces remain in the region and mediation efforts continue. The column says a durable agreement is uncertain, leaving shipping dangerous and energy infrastructure vulnerable even without renewed full-scale fighting.
