Trump's minerals push has yet to loosen China's grip ahead of Xi talks
XLB•The US remains dependent on China for critical minerals ahead of President Donald Trump's talks with Xi Jinping, despite billions of dollars in federal investment. US magnet manufacturing capacity was about 4,500 metric tons in 2025, compared with roughly 210,000 metric tons in China.
1. China's negotiating leverage
Trump meets Xi this week as they weigh extending a trade truce due to expire in January, which includes export-control waivers for certain critical minerals. China has used its dominance in rare earths as leverage; export restrictions last year disrupted work at Ford and other US manufacturers.
2. US projects lag
Many US mining, refining and processing projects remain years from production. A $7.4 billion Tennessee refinery backed by Korea Zinc is not expected to open until 2030, while Rio Tinto and BHP aim to build a copper mine that would open next decade. Trilogy Metals plans to produce copper in Alaska starting in 2031.
3. Some production underway
MP Materials is expanding magnet production in Texas under a multibillion-dollar Pentagon partnership. Lithium Americas is building Nevada's Thacker Pass mine, with production expected in 2028, while Perpetua Resources plans to produce antimony in Idaho by 2029. Vulcan Elements has begun making rare earth magnets in North Carolina, but customers have not approved them for use.
