Trump's oil jawboning loses punch as wars spiral
USO•Trump’s efforts to calm oil markets have weakened as conflicts spread, with Brent crude above $100 a barrel and US diesel prices reaching a record $6.50 a gallon. The article says traders remain concerned about supply security despite recovering flows through the Strait of Hormuz and promised Russian diesel exports.
1. Oil rhetoric loses force
Trump’s statements about a deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped keep oil prices below record highs earlier in the conflict. After the July ceasefire broke down and violence spread, Brent stayed above $100 a barrel for most of the past few weeks, despite crude flows through the strait recovering to roughly 80%-90% of pre-war levels.
2. Diesel supply pressure
US diesel prices climbed to a record $6.50 a gallon as conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure reduced refining capacity. Trump said Russia would resume some diesel exports, but the promised 15 million barrels over three months equal about half a day of global diesel consumption. US wholesale diesel prices were flat on Monday, while European diesel futures fell 2% and Brent rose around 2% to nearly $107 a barrel.
3. Markets seek lasting security
The article says around 2 million barrels per day of refining capacity in Russia and the Middle East has been lost, while global oil inventories have fallen sharply. Restoring damaged Russian refineries and export infrastructure could take months or years, and high tanker costs, insurance premiums and complicated logistics continue to constrain flows.
