Trump's political humbling signals short-term gain, long-term pain for China
SPY•Republicans’ midterm loss may give Beijing leverage in trade talks with Washington, but analysts say China also faces risks from a more assertive Trump and a Congress pushing for $14 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.
1. Trade talks ahead
The midterm drubbing of Donald Trump’s Republicans may make him more wary of upsetting a fragile trade truce with Beijing, giving China a potential advantage in negotiations set to resume later this month. Trump is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen and at the G20 in Miami in December; the trade truce expires in January.
2. Risks for Beijing
Analysts said Trump, constrained at home, could seek foreign policy wins more aggressively. A Democratic-controlled Congress may also press him to unfreeze $14 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, which Trump has said he is withholding as a “negotiating chip” with Xi.
3. Longer-term concerns
Analysts said Beijing may use the period of stability to diversify trade ties and bolster its economic resilience, but a future US administration could be less accommodating to China. They also cited potential risks from unconventional foreign policy moves and a wider Iran conflict that could drive a sustained rise in global oil prices and threaten China’s energy security.
