By Ron Bousso
LONDON, Sept. 15 (Reuters) - An energy infrastructure truce that U.S. President Donald Trump brokered between Russia and Ukraine could reduce one of the biggest immediate threats facing the global diesel market. But it is unlikely to reverse the severe supply crunch that has emerged this year.
On Monday, the Republican president said Ukraine and Russia had agreed not to attack each other's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in response that he wanted more details before halting strikes.
Even if the arrangement holds, the global refining industry, and diesel markets in particular, remain caught in the crossfire of two major conflicts that are unlikely to be resolved quickly.
In Russia, a years-long Ukrainian drone campaign targeting energy installations has crippled one of the world’s largest refining industries. In the first eight months of 2026, a Russian refinery was successfully hit on average every three days, according to the International Energy Agency.
In the Middle East, several refineries were damaged after the outbreak of the Iran war in February, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained fuel exports. The Gulf accounted for around a fifth of global seaborne diesel exports, or about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), in 2025.
Combined, net diesel exports from Russia and the Gulf in August were 1.6 million bpd lower than in February. Before the two conflicts escalated, these regions accounted for almost 45% of global seaborne diesel trade.
Diesel accounts for around 30% of global oil demand and is widely seen as the lifeblood of the global economy. It powers trucks, trains, ships, industrial machinery, mining equipment and farm vehicles. In Europe, it also fuels roughly four in 10 passenger cars.
The sharp drop in supplies pushed diesel prices and refining margins to record highs in August. U.S. retail diesel rose above a record $6 a gallon last week.
It is therefore unsurprising that Trump, who faces growing domestic discontent over rising energy costs and stubbornly elevated inflation, has sought to ease pressure on diesel markets.
The questions now are whether this “energy infrastructure ceasefire” will hold and how quickly the damage can be undone.
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