Turkey central bank seen to restart easing cycle with 100 bp cut
TLT•Twenty-two of 24 economists surveyed expect Turkey’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points this week, from 37% to 36%. Economists also forecast another 100 bp cut in December, bringing the year-end rate to 35%.
1. Rate-cut expectations
Twenty-two of 24 economists expect Turkey’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 100 basis points this week, while two forecast no change. The bank held the rate at 37% in September, and economists expect another 100 bp cut in December, bringing the rate to 35%.
2. Inflation and growth outlook
Inflation was 1.84% month-on-month in September and 29.73% year-on-year. The poll sees year-end inflation at 29.5% this year and 23.7% at the end of 2027, with economic growth forecast at 2.7% this year and 3.7% in 2027.
