Twelve Securis sees 2026 Atlantic hurricane season staying below average as El Niño strengthens
XLF•Below-average season view maintained
Twelve Capital maintained its call for below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity, citing a strengthening El Niño, with final seasonal forecast updates due in early August.
Weather factors expected to suppress formation
The firm expects wind shear and Saharan dust to suppress Atlantic storm formation in the main development regions into early August.
Limited insurance-market risk from Tropical Storm Bertha
Twelve Capital flagged limited insurance-market risk from Tropical Storm Bertha, citing a weak system that made Louisiana landfall on July 22 with 45 mph winds.
Strong northerly wind shear kept the storm highly asymmetrical, pushing the heaviest rain and strongest winds south of the center and away from the Gulf Coast.
