Uber’s ride-hailing and delivery segments remain global leaders, with gross bookings rising approximately 15% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and adjusted EBITDA improving sequentially. However, investor sentiment has grown cautious as the company contends with rising driver incentives, which grew by 12% sequentially, and stiff competition in key markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, the autonomous vehicle (AV) unit—launched through partnerships and in-house R&D—continues on-road testing in multiple U.S. cities but is not yet factored into consensus growth forecasts. Management has guided for capital expenditures of roughly $1.5 billion in 2026, aiming to scale AV validation while preserving free cash flow margins above 10%.

In partnership with Nuro and Lucid, Uber began supervised on-road testing of its Lucid Gravity-based robotaxi in December and showcased the production-intent vehicle at CES 2026. The pact includes Uber’s $300 million equity investment in Lucid and a commitment to acquire 20,000 autonomous vehicles over six years. The robotaxi—equipped with Nvidia DRIVE AGX Thor compute, lidar, radar and high-resolution cameras—features interactive in-cabin screens, LED halo identifiers and seating for up to six passengers plus luggage. Upon final safety validation, Lucid plans to commence assembly at its Arizona factory, targeting a commercial launch in the San Francisco Bay Area in late 2026.

Uber renewed its global mapping agreement with TomTom on January 6, integrating TomTom’s live traffic feeds and Maps APIs into its platform. This collaboration processes billions of data points daily to refine routing algorithms and pick-up/drop-off accuracy in complex environments such as airports and stadiums. Uber expects the updated mapping infrastructure to improve average trip times by an estimated 5% and reduce detour miles by up to 8%, translating into both operational cost savings and enhanced driver earnings per hour.

Equity research firm Melius downgraded Uber from Hold to Sell, assigning a $73 per share target, citing intensifying competition from autonomous vehicle operators. The report highlights that major AV players plan standalone expansion in North America, which could undercut Uber’s margins if driverless supply scales faster than ride demand. Melius projects that by 2028, autonomous fleets could capture 10% of urban ride volume, potentially eroding Uber’s ride-hailing EBITDA margin by 200 basis points if the company is forced to subsidize or aggregate third-party robotaxis to defend market share.