Uber Posts $52B FY25 Revenue, $83 DCF Fair Value; Waymo Launches $29.99 Loyalty Program
UBER•Uber posted FY25 revenue of $52B, $5.6B operating income and $9.8B free cash flow, trading at ~17x P/E with a DCF-based fair value of $83. Rival Waymo introduced a $29.99 monthly Premier loyalty program offering 10% cashback and five free ride cancellations, raising competitive pressure.
1. FY25 Financial Performance
Uber delivered FY25 revenue of $52B, operating income of $5.6B and free cash flow of $9.8B. Shares trade at approximately 17x P/E, with a DCF-based fair value of $83 implying about 21% upside.
2. Competitive Pressure from Waymo
Waymo’s new Premier loyalty program costs $29.99 per month and provides members 10% cash back on every trip plus five free ride cancellations. This aggressive perks offering intensifies competition in core U.S. urban markets where Uber operates.
3. Emerging AI Price War
An AI-driven price war among ride-hailing platforms and model providers threatens to compress service fees. Uber’s robust cash reserves and strong free cash flow position it to absorb margin pressure, but prolonged price cuts could erode profitability.
4. Strategic Outlook
Uber may bolster its own subscription benefits and adjust pricing algorithms to defend market share and margins. Continued share buybacks alongside targeted loyalty and technology investments will be critical to sustaining growth amid intensifying competition.
