Uber’s Q4 Shows Modest Revenue Rise with Strong EBITDA and FCF Growth
In Q4, Uber recorded modest revenue growth while EBITDA, net income and free cash flow scaled significantly faster, underscoring real operating leverage. The market is now focused on margin durability as Uber trades like a mature platform, with potential rerating tied to accelerating cash flow and buybacks.
1. Wedbush Analyst Sees Near-Term Upside, Long-Term Uncertainty
Wedbush’s Scott Devitt reiterated a constructive stance on Uber’s short-term trajectory, noting the company’s strong margin expansion and network effects. He highlighted that EBITDA grew by 35% year-over-year in the last quarter, driven by cost efficiencies in both Mobility and Delivery segments. Despite this, Devitt expressed reservations about competition from Tesla’s Robotaxi initiative and Waymo’s autonomous network, stating that Uber must demonstrate sustained resilience in its driver-partner ecosystem before he gains conviction on long-term earnings power.
2. Strategic Relaunch in Macau Marks First Asian Expansion in Years
Uber has officially relaunched ride-hailing services in Macau, its first greenfield entry into an Asian market since 2018. The relaunch includes taxi and limousine offerings, with an initial fleet of 500 vehicles and a target to onboard 1,200 drivers by year-end. Management expects this initiative to contribute an incremental 3% to total Mobility booking volume in 2026, leveraging Macau’s high tourist footfall and event calendar to accelerate adoption.
3. Q4 Preview: Profitability Takes Center Stage Over Growth
In its upcoming fourth-quarter results, Uber will showcase the completion of its pivot from growth at all costs to disciplined profitability. Revenue growth is forecasted at 8% year-over-year, while free cash flow is expected to exceed $1.1 billion, up from $450 million a year earlier. Investors will focus on the sustainability of a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin and whether Mobility volumes can expand without deep promotional discounts. Wedbush notes that at current enterprise multiples, any acceleration in buybacks or further margin gains could trigger a valuation rerating despite a deceleration in top-line growth.