UBP lifts US 10-year yield target to 4.25%-4.75% as oil keeps inflation sticky
TLT•UBP raises U.S. yield target and stays constructive on risk assets
Union Bancaire Privée kept a constructive view on risk assets in September 2026, citing broadening earnings growth beyond technology.
US 10-year yield target range lifted to 4.25%-4.75%, driven by resilient growth, higher energy prices, and rising government supply.
Brent crude is expected to hold USD 80-100 per barrel through end-2026, sustaining inflation pressure and delaying rate cuts toward 2027.
The Fed's September decision was flagged as a key risk, with markets split between holding rates or tightening as inflation stays above target.
EUR/USD is seen in a 1.16-1.2 range; the euro stance turned more constructive, prompting reduced EUR hedges in USD portfolios.
