UBP says Warsh hawkishness raises odds of September Fed rate hike
TLT•Rates, equities and currencies
US 2-year yields rose 11 bps to 4.34% while 10-year yields fell 2 bps to 4.72%, flattening the curve.
Nvidia guidance reinforced the AI investment cycle, yet UBP expects equity gains to stay narrow and earnings-dependent in higher-for-longer rates.
EUR downside was seen as limited near term as eurozone inflation expectations rise; gold dipped, with UBP keeping a USD 4,800 year-end target.
UBP sees higher odds of a September Fed hike
UBP flagged rising odds of a September Fed rate hike after Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish tone at Jackson Hole.
Core PCE rose 0.25% m/m with upward revisions, keeping the Fed focused on inflation despite resilient growth signals.
