UBP sees gold holding near USD 4,150/oz despite higher US yields
GLD•UBP sees limited downside for gold near USD 4,150 per ounce despite rising US yields, citing investor inflows and central bank buying. It flagged a possible revaluation of US Treasury gold holdings as an upside risk.
1. Gold and yields
UBP said gold’s declines were muted despite the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike, with spot near USD 4,150 per ounce. US 10-year yields reached 5.30% and 10-year TIPS yields rose to just below 3%, while gold-rate correlations weakened.
2. Support and risks
Investor inflows rose in August and early September, and UBP sees limited downside as the long-end rate move nears completion. Central bank buying remained supportive, led by China; a World Gold Council survey found 45% of respondents expect to raise holdings. UBP identified a revaluation of just over 8,000 tons of US Treasury gold holdings as a potential upside risk that could revive a USD debasement trade.
