UBS Forecasts 0.6% Q4 GDP Revision, Core CPI at 0.27%
UBS analysts forecast a Q4 GDP revision of 0.6% annualized, unchanged from the preliminary 0.7%, and project March core CPI at 0.27%, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.66%. They noted that March payrolls of 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% likely reinforce a hawkish Federal Reserve narrative.
1. GDP and Inflation Projections
UBS analysts expect the final Q4 GDP revision at 0.6% annualized, matching the preliminary outcome, while forecasting March core CPI at 0.27%, which would push annual inflation to 2.66%. These forecasts frame UBS's outlook on monetary policy and macroeconomic momentum.
2. Labor Market Interpretation
UBS interpreted March payroll gains of 178,000 and a decline in unemployment to 4.3% as signals likely to strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, noting that seasonal factors such as returning workers and warm weather may have boosted hiring. This view underpins UBS's assessment of sustained monetary tightening risks.