UBS Forecasts Constellation Brands Q4 EPS at $1.59, Margins 36%-38%
UBS forecasts Q4 EPS of $1.59, below consensus of $1.74, and sees beer depletions down 0.5% versus Street’s 1.1% decline. It expects beer margins of 36%-38% (versus prior 39%-40%), flags cautious fiscal 2027 guidance ahead of a CEO change, and raises its price target to $176 from $168.
1. UBS Q4 EPS and Depletion Forecasts
UBS projects Q4 EPS of $1.59, below Visible Alpha consensus of $1.74 and FactSet consensus of $1.70, and anticipates beer depletions down 0.5% versus Wall Street’s 1.1% decline expectation.
2. Beer Margin Outlook
The analysts expect the beer segment to deliver operating margins between 36% and 38%, down from prior guidance of 39% to 40%, reflecting cost pressures and a volatile market environment.
3. Cautious Guidance and CEO Transition
UBS flags potential conservatism in fiscal 2027 guidance to build flexibility during a pending CEO change, suggesting management may adopt a more cautious tone in strategic outlook.
4. Price Target Increase and Rating
The firm raised its 12-month price target to $176 from $168 and maintained its Buy rating, citing medium-term revenue potential, market share momentum, and upcoming events such as the World Cup.