UBS Sees 69% Increase in Dreamlifter Flights Signaling Stronger 787 Production

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UBS analysts say early January data indicate Boeing 787 production momentum has strengthened after a typical year-end slowdown, citing a 69% year-over-year increase in Dreamlifter cargo flights over the 30 days ending Jan. 9. This uptick in Dreamlifter flights and early deliveries should boost 787 output.

1. Production Recovery Accelerates

Boeing closed 2025 with its strongest annual delivery performance since 2018, logging 715 commercial jets delivered and securing net orders for 1,075 aircraft valued at $114.6 billion. December alone saw 175 new orders, driven primarily by Alaska Airlines commitments, underscoring sustained demand for the 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner families. The company has outlined a ramp-up plan targeting a delivery rate of 700 jets in 2026, supported by incremental increases in both 737 MAX and 787 production rates and a stabilizing supply chain.

2. FAA Signals No Block on MAX 7 and MAX 10 Certification

On January 21, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration clarified that the agency is not the impediment to securing type certification for the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants. This statement follows Boeing’s submission of final compliance packages and reflects ongoing technical reviews focused on flight-control software updates and structural fatigue testing. An accelerated issuance of certificates could enable first deliveries of the MAX 7 by mid-2026, assuming no further technical findings.

3. Early January 787 Production Momentum Strengthens

UBS analysts report a 69% year-over-year increase in Boeing Dreamlifter cargo flights over the 30 days ending January 9, a leading indicator for 787 assembly activity. This uptick follows the customary year-end slowdown and suggests a rebound in component throughput from key suppliers in North Carolina and Italy. Analysts estimate that the 787 production rate has climbed from 2 to 3 frames per month, positioning Boeing to meet customer delivery schedules and reduce the backlog of undelivered Dreamliners.

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