UBS sees China’s industrial rise as bigger long-term threat to Swiss exporters than US tariffs
UBS•UBS says China is the larger long-term risk for Swiss exporters
UBS flagged China’s industrial and technology rise as a bigger long-term threat to Swiss exporters than higher US tariffs.
US tariffs raised since 2025 hit margins in parts of Swiss manufacturing, though the overall macro impact should stay limited.
Switzerland’s export mix remains relatively defensive, with less direct overlap with China than many European peers.
Market access is becoming more decisive as fragmentation pushes manufacturers to locate production closer to end-demand to reduce tariff risk.
UBS expects Swiss growth to move back toward a 1.5%-1.75% trend; the SNB is seen holding at 0%, with a possible first hike in June 2027.
