UBS Sees GLP-1 Drugs Curbing North America Alcohol Growth to 1.3% Through 2035
UBS projects North America beverage alcohol volume growth of just 1.3% annually from 2025 to 2035, 200–300 basis points below pre-COVID levels, driven by Gen Z’s lower weekly drinking and widespread GLP-1 drug adoption. Globally, the bank forecasts 3% annual growth over the same period, with stronger trajectories in Asia-Pacific and Latin America balancing softer developed-market demand.
1. North America Growth Outlook
UBS estimates North America beverage alcohol category growth at 1.3% per year from 2025 to 2035, 200 to 300 basis points below pre-COVID levels. Volume declines are expected to outpace gains from pricing and premium brands in a market where younger consumers drink less frequently.
2. Global Growth Forecast
The bank forecasts 3% annual growth globally over the same period, only slightly below historical trends. Robust demand in Asia-Pacific and Latin America is expected to counterbalance weaker consumption in developed markets.
3. Demographic Shifts and GLP-1 Impact
Survey data covering nearly 10,000 consumers found only 32% of Gen Z drink alcohol weekly, versus about 45% for older cohorts, highlighting a structural headwind. Almost half of GLP-1 users report reduced alcohol intake, adding to moderation and substitution pressures.
4. Investment Implications
UBS advises focusing on companies with premiumisation strategies, strong share-gain potential and geographic diversification. Selective stock picking is likely to matter more as volume growth slows and pricing becomes the primary driver of revenue gains.