UK long-run inflation expectations near 15-month high in September, Citi/YouGov survey shows
TLT•British households’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 4.5% in September from 3.9% in August, while longer-term expectations increased to 4.3% from 4.1%, their highest since June 2025 excluding March.
1. Inflation expectations rise
A Citi/YouGov survey found that British households’ expectations for price growth over the next 12 months rose to 4.5% in September from 3.9% in August. Longer-term expectations rose to 4.3% from 4.1%, reaching their highest level since June 2025, excluding March.
2. Surveys diverge
Citi said longer-term expectations were 15 basis points below their March peak. The bank also noted that, as of August, its year-ahead measure was 86 basis points above the Bank of England’s Decision Maker Panel, compared with a historical average spread of 16 basis points. It said the central bank’s choice between household and business views remained unclear.
