Union Bancaire Privée publishes “UBP Headlines” factsheet on 2026 US midterm elections
SPY•UBP publishes midterm election note
Union Bancaire Privée published a “UBP Headlines” note on the 2026 US midterm elections, dated Sept. 8, 2026.
- Trump approval at 36% leaves an 80% probability the House flips to Democrats; the Senate is framed as a 50:50 contest.
- Impeachment-driven removal is described as unlikely without a two-thirds Senate majority; a 25th Amendment transfer also requires two-thirds votes.
- Post-midterm market history cited as bullish, with the S&P 500 averaging 15%-20% gains in the following 6-12 months since 1950.
