United Airlines Sees Record $12-$14 Adjusted EPS on Premium, Business Demand
United Airlines projects adjusted EPS of $12 to $14 for 2026, matching analysts’ $13.16 consensus, driven by robust premium seat and business travel sales. The carrier also forecasts Q1 EPS of $1.00 to $1.50 versus $1.13 expected, despite a 1.6% decline in fourth-quarter unit revenue.
1. Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Earnings Beat Expectations
United Airlines reported fourth-quarter diluted earnings per share of $3.19 and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.10, both within its initial guidance range of $3.00 to $3.50. For the full year 2025, the airline delivered diluted EPS of $10.20, up 8% year-over-year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $10.62. Full-year pre-tax earnings reached $4.3 billion (7.3% pre-tax margin), with adjusted pre-tax earnings of $4.6 billion (7.8% adjusted margin). Revenue for 2025 grew 3.5% to $59.1 billion—the highest in company history—while operating cash flow totaled $8.4 billion and free cash flow was $2.7 billion.
2. Record Operational Performance in 2025
United flew a record 181 million passengers in 2025, operating an average of 496,000 mainline passengers daily and 303 widebody departures per day—the largest mainline schedule in its history. The carrier ranked second among U.S. airlines in on-time departures and achieved its lowest seat cancellation rate ever. During summer 2025, it surpassed 5,000 peak daily flights and saved over one million potential missed connections, a 42% increase over 2024. Premium revenue grew 11% for the full year, loyalty revenue rose 9%, and basic-economy ticket sales increased 5%. The airline also set a fourth-quarter record for Net Promoter Score, with its highest monthly NPS recorded in November.
3. Strong Start to 2026 and Future Outlook
United began 2026 with robust momentum—premium seat and business travel demand remained strong, driving record weekly sales in early January. The airline forecasts adjusted EPS of $12 to $14 for the full year and $1.00 to $1.50 for the first quarter. Capital investments include over 120 new aircraft deliveries in 2026 (more widebodies in a single year than any U.S. carrier since 1988) and significant airport upgrades at Washington Dulles and Houston. United expects free cash flow in 2026 to match 2025 levels and aims to sustain its leadership in operational reliability and customer satisfaction.