United Airlines Posts Record Q4 Revenue and EPS Beat, Plans 120 Jet Purchases

UALUAL

United Airlines reported record Q4 2025 revenue of $15.4 billion and EPS of $3.10, surpassing consensus estimates by 0.35% and 5.4% respectively. The carrier plans to add over 100 narrowbody and 20 widebody jets in 2026, while analysts project a consensus price target of $134.94 representing 21% upside.

1. Record Q4 Revenue and Earnings Beat Estimates

United Airlines reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $15.4 billion, topping consensus estimates of $15.35 billion by roughly 0.35%. Earnings per share came in at $3.10, matching the whisper number and exceeding analyst projections by 5.4%, despite trailing last year’s EPS by 4%. Revenue growth was driven primarily by strong performance in premium cabins and corporate travel, while lower-income consumer demand in the main cabin remained subdued, reflecting a bifurcated recovery within United’s customer base.

2. Robust Business Travel Demand Supports Outlook

Corporate ticket sales rose by a high single-digit percentage year-over-year, according to Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella. He characterized current business travel volumes as "amazing," and the company forecasts first-quarter 2026 earnings to climb by 37% compared with the prior year. United’s loyalty program also contributed materially to revenue gains, with premium cabin bookings up 12% year-over-year on a 7% capacity increase, while main cabin revenue grew by just 1% against a 6% capacity rise.

3. Ambitious Fleet Expansion Plan

To accommodate growing demand across all customer segments, United has committed to acquiring over 100 new narrowbody jets and approximately 20 widebody Boeing aircraft throughout 2026. This investment will expand United’s route flexibility and bolster capacity in key domestic and international markets, enabling the carrier to optimize its network for both corporate and leisure travelers while targeting improved unit revenue in underperforming sectors.

4. Bullish Analyst Sentiment and Valuation Metrics

Investors have responded positively, sending United shares up more than 2% post-earnings. At the report date, the stock traded at a trailing P/E of 11.14x, with a forward P/E near 8x, compared to its historical average. The consensus analyst price target stands at $134.94, implying over 21% upside from recent levels. Eight analysts have adopted a bullish stance this year, with top targets reaching $153, underpinned by United’s ability to sustain margin expansion through disciplined capacity management and solid demand trends.

Sources

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