Argus Research Raises United Airlines Target to $135 After Q4 Shutdown Hit

UALUAL

Argus Research analyst John Staszak set a $135 price target for United Airlines, implying an 18.66% upside from about $113.77, following robust 2025 performance despite a $250 million government shutdown hit in Q4. United guided 2026 EPS of $13 at the midpoint and saw its shares rise 2.22% on the announcement.

1. Strong Q4 2025 Performance

United Airlines reported record fourth-quarter revenue of $15.4 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $15.35 billion by 0.35%. The carrier delivered earnings per share of $3.10, a 5.4% beat versus analyst projections and only 4% below year-ago levels. Despite a government shutdown in November that trimmed approximately $250 million from results, United maintained robust unit revenues in premium cabins and corporate channels, driving a more than 2% rally in its shares following the release.

2. Demand Split and Business Travel Recovery

Premium and corporate travel volumes rebounded sharply, with corporate ticket sales running in the high single-digit percentage range above fourth-quarter 2024 levels. Main-cabin demand from price-sensitive consumers remains muted, with main-cabin revenue up just 1% year-over-year against a 6% capacity increase. In contrast, premium cabin revenue climbed 12% on a 7% capacity rise. Management forecasts first-quarter earnings growth of roughly 37% year-over-year, driven by sustained “amazing” business volumes and a continued shift toward higher-fare segments.

3. Fleet Expansion and Analyst Outlook

United plans to take delivery of over 100 narrowbody aircraft and about 20 widebody jets in 2026, supporting network flexibility and capacity growth across domestic and international routes. The company’s forward price-to-earnings multiple stands near 8 times, below historical averages, while the consensus analyst target of $134.94 implies roughly 21% upside. Eight firms have raised their outlook since the earnings release, including a top-tier brokerage projecting a $153 target, underscoring growing investor confidence in United’s profit-margin expansion prospects.

Sources

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