Upstart Previews Q4: $288M Revenue Guidance, 47¢ EPS Estimate
Upstart will report Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Feb. 10, with management guiding $288 million in revenue (up 31.7% year-over-year) and $0.47 in adjusted EPS (up 80.8%). The company expects fee revenues of $262 million, net interest income of $26 million, adjusted EBITDA of $63 million and a 53% contribution margin as auto and home lending ramp.
1. Q4 and Full-Year Guidance
Upstart forecasted Q4 revenues of about $288 million, reflecting 31.7% growth from last year, with adjusted EPS of $0.47, up 80.8% year-over-year. Management also projected fee revenues of $262 million, net interest income of $26 million, adjusted EBITDA of $63 million and GAAP net income of $17 million.
2. Funding Capacity and Credit Quality
The $1.5 billion forward-flow agreement with Castlelake and additions of bank and credit union partners have expanded Upstart’s lending capacity, enabling the company to scale originations while reducing balance sheet exposure. Investors will watch funded volumes and conversion rates to assess whether AI models maintain credit quality amid higher borrower demand.
3. Diversification into Auto and Home Lending
Upstart’s newer verticals—auto and home loans—continued rapid growth in Q3, supported by partnerships such as Tech CU. The upcoming report should clarify whether these segments are approaching material contributions to overall volume and revenue, underpinning longer-term growth beyond personal loans.