Upstart Stock Slides 29% in 2025 Despite 79% Revenue Growth

UPSTUPST

Upstart's 2025 stock tumbled 29% despite 79% revenue growth to $747.8 million and GAAP profit of $35 million for the first nine months. Investors feared rising credit risk, a weakening labor market and increased auto loan delinquencies overruling positive fundamentals.

1. Upstart Schedules Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results Release

Upstart Holdings will publish its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results on February 10, 2026. The company will issue an earnings press release and investor presentation after market close on that day, and host a conference call at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss performance metrics, operational highlights and strategic initiatives. Both the live webcast and replay will be accessible via Upstart’s investor relations website, ensuring broad participation for institutional and retail investors alike.

2. Strong 2025 Growth and Return to Profitability

Through the first three quarters of 2025, Upstart achieved 79% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $747.8 million, and reported GAAP net income of $35 million compared with a $125.8 million loss in the same period of 2024. This turnaround was driven by the deployment of a next-generation AI model across its personal, automotive retail and refinance, home equity line of credit, and small-dollar relief loan products. More than 90% of loans were processed fully automatically using these new AI risk assessments, enabling the company to onboard over 100 lending partners and expand its addressable market.

3. Rising Credit Concerns Temper Investor Sentiment

Despite robust fundamentals, investor confidence waned in the second half of 2025 as rising auto loan delinquencies and signs of softening in the labor market triggered broader credit risk fears. Upstart management has maintained that internal performance indicators show minimal deterioration in borrower credit quality, but external market data on auto finance and consumer spending patterns weighed on share performance. The company’s emphasis on continuous AI model retraining and enhanced loss mitigation tools aims to bolster resilience against higher default rates.

4. 2026 Outlook Focused on Model Refinement and Market Penetration

Looking ahead to 2026, Upstart plans to deepen integrations with existing banking and credit union partners while pursuing new relationships in underserved segments. Management expects incremental margin expansion as automation rates exceed 92% and incremental loan volumes grow through cross-sell initiatives. Key performance indicators to watch will include average risk-adjusted yield, cost of funds, and net charge-off trends as the labor market stabilizes. Analyst consensus projects sustained double-digit revenue growth, though credit cycle volatility remains a risk to near-term earnings consistency.

Sources

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