Upstart's Q3 Revenues Miss Estimates by 1.3% and Offers Weak Q4 Guidance

UPSTUPST

Upstart posted Q3 revenues of $277.1M, up 70.9% year-on-year but missing estimates by 1.3%, and issued full-year and Q4 guidance below analyst expectations. Analysts project Q4 revenue growth of 32% to $289M with $0.46 adjusted EPS as peers Dolby and PTC beat estimates by 4.4% and 8.2%.

1. Q3 Performance and Guidance

Upstart reported Q3 revenues of $277.1M, up 70.9% year-on-year but missing consensus by 1.3%, and provided full-year and Q4 revenue guidance below analyst forecasts, signaling a cautious near-term outlook.

2. Q4 Analyst Forecasts

For the upcoming quarter, analysts anticipate revenue of $289M, representing 32% growth year-on-year, and adjusted earnings of $0.46 per share, marking a deceleration from last year’s 56.1% increase.

3. Peer Comparisons

Within the vertical software segment, Dolby Laboratories’ revenues fell 2.9% year-on-year yet beat expectations by 4.4%, while PTC delivered 21.4% revenue growth topping forecasts by 8.2%, establishing performance benchmarks.

4. Stock Trends and Targets

Over the past month, Upstart shares declined 15.2%, slightly outperforming the 18.8% average drop among peers, and carry an average analyst price target of $56.64 versus the current $38.32 share price.

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