Bond strategists polled November 9-11 forecast the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.00% in three months and 4.96% in six months. Nearly 80% said the yield was more likely to finish above than below their three-month forecast.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to around 5% on Tuesday after falling nearly 50 basis points from an early October peak of 5.36%. The 2-year yield rose about 20 basis points to 4.75%, narrowing the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields by about 15 basis points over the past week.
Medians in the November 9-11 poll put the 10-year yield at 5.00% in three months and 4.96% in six months, broadly unchanged from October. Of 30 strategists, 23 said the yield was more likely to end above their three-month forecast than below it. Strategists still forecast declines over the next year, with median yields of 4.75% for the 10-year and 4.33% for the 2-year.
The Treasury’s latest borrowing plans signalled no let-up in issuance, and strategists said short- and intermediate-dated debt would absorb a greater share of government borrowing needs. Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Kelley Gerrity said heavy supply and competition from corporate borrowing to fund AI data centres put a higher structural floor under long-term yields.
