US banks lending commitments signal confidence in AI capex cycle sustainability, KBW says
XLF•KBW sees big-bank commitments as a sign of confidence
KBW says last week's major capital commitments from U.S. big banks linked to domestic infrastructure and AI build out signal confidence in the sustainability of the capex cycle.
Bank of America (BAC.N) pledged $250 billion for U.S. infrastructure financing and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) launched a $1.5 trillion infrastructure initiative.
Elsewhere, Nvidia (NVDA.O) partnered with Wall Street giants including Goldman Sachs (GS.N) to establish AI infrastructure financing platforms to mobilize over $500 billion.
"We read the longer-dated commitments as clear signals of confidence from the largest lenders that this capex cycle has room to run beyond 2026," KBW analyst Christopher McGratty said.
The brokerage says commercial and industrial loan growth, which has accelerated to double-digit pace year to date, has been one of the more encouraging developments of 2026.
"While we do not anticipate a double-digit growth acceleration in perpetuity, it is clear that momentum is not expected to slow near-term and should carry into 2027 and beyond. The level and breadth near-term are the largest question marks as we begin to look toward 2027," McGratty said.
