US-Canada trade deal would hurt European aluminium buyers
CENX•A reduction in US tariffs on Canadian aluminium from 50% to 25% could sharply lower the US Midwest premium, but redirect metal away from Europe and push up European premiums. Canadian shipments to the Netherlands rose 98% year-on-year to 215,000 tons in January to August 2026.
1. Canadian exports shift
Canadian exports to the US have fallen since tariffs rose to 50% in June last year. Cross-border flows dropped 26% to 2.03 million metric tons last year and fell a further 14% so far in 2026, while Canada remains the US market’s largest single supplier.
2. Europe relies on supply
Canadian shipments to the Netherlands climbed from 64,800 tons in 2024 to 372,000 tons last year, then rose 98% year-on-year to 215,000 tons in January to August 2026. Canadian exports have helped European buyers as the region loses Russian metal, South32 idles its Mozambique smelter and Gulf supply is disrupted.
3. Tariff deal could reshape trade
The US Midwest premium stands at $1.093 per lb, or $2,409 per metric ton. A cut in the Canadian tariff from 50% to 25% could cause it to collapse, while European premiums could need to rise significantly to attract aluminium if the US gains access to more supply.
