US consumer prices expected to have risen at slower pace in October
TLT•US consumer prices were forecast to rise 0.3% in October, down from 0.6% in September, while core prices were expected to increase 0.2%. Economists estimated year-over-year inflation at 3.9%, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish that figure because last year’s shutdown left no October comparison data.
1. Monthly inflation forecast
The Consumer Price Index was forecast to rise 0.3% in October, after increasing 0.6% in September. Excluding food and energy, the index was expected to rise 0.2%, down from 0.3% the previous month.
2. Missing annual comparison
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish year-over-year inflation readings for October because last year’s government shutdown prevented the collection of consumer price data for that month. Economists’ estimates for annual CPI inflation converged at 3.9%, while core inflation was projected at 2.7%, up from 2.6% in September.
3. Rate outlook
Economists said inflation likely remained stubbornly high, and financial markets were pricing in an approximately 85% chance of a rate hike in December. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range last month.
