US EIA hikes oil price forecasts again as Iran war drains global stockpile
USO•The EIA raised its 2026 Brent forecast to about $98 a barrel, up 8% from last month, and sees Brent averaging $105 in the fourth quarter. It expects Brent to average $84 in 2027 as oil flows recover and inventories rebuild.
1. Higher oil forecasts
The US Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, citing falling global stockpiles and tight diesel markets linked to the ongoing Iran war. It forecasts Brent at about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 above its previous estimate, and about $98 for 2026, up 8% from last month’s forecast.
2. Flows and production
The EIA expects Middle East oil production and exports to gradually recover as transit through the Strait of Hormuz improves and producers use alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, were above 81% of pre-war levels in September. The agency expects crude production shut-ins to fall from 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million bpd in the first quarter of 2027.
3. 2027 outlook
As flows recover and inventories rebuild, Brent is expected to average $84 a barrel in 2027, $10 above the EIA’s prior forecast. The agency expects US crude production to reach a record 14.3 million bpd in 2027, up from a record 13.9 million bpd in 2026.
