US farmers are past the point of political return
DBA•Trade tensions have shifted Chinese purchases of US farm goods to Brazil, while US soybean bookings were down 45% year over year as of July. US beef exports to China fell to 154 million pounds in 2025 from 474 million in 2024.
1. China shifts farm purchases
Trade tensions have reoriented China’s commitments to buy soybeans, corn, sorghum and beef, with much of the purchasing shifting to Brazil. As of July, China had booked 12.4 million metric tons of US soybeans, down 45% year over year and short of its 25 million-ton commitment for the year. China had not purchased any US corn that year.
2. Beef exports fall
US beef exports to China fell to 154 million pounds in 2025 from 474 million pounds in 2024. Record-high prices and a depleted herd have hurt, while the Agriculture Department projects beef imports to rise and overseas sales to decline through 2027. China has allowed export licenses for hundreds of US beef facilities to expire and increased purchases from Australia.
3. Farm-state pressures
Agricultural states including Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Nebraska face unusually close congressional midterm contests, according to polling. The article cites higher diesel and fertilizer prices linked to the war in Iran and tensions with Canada, which supplies as much as 85% of US potash. It argues that a political backlash may ease price pressure, but restoring lost export markets to their former levels may prove impossible.
