US forecaster sees over 79% chance of strong-to-very strong El Niño in January to March
SPY•The US Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 79% chance of a strong-to-very strong El Niño through January to March 2027. It said related impacts are more likely, though not guaranteed.
1. El Niño outlook
The US Climate Prediction Center said El Niño is strengthening and put the chance of a strong-to-very strong event through January to March 2027 at greater than 79%. The forecaster said the event would make related impacts more likely, though not guaranteed.
2. Agricultural risks
AccuWeather forecasters cited drought and wildfires in Malaysia and Indonesia and said India's southwest monsoon was its driest since 2015. Jason Nicholls said India's 2027 monsoon could be drier than normal if El Niño conditions continue deeper into 2027. India's finance ministry and Reserve Bank governor have warned that strong El Niño conditions and a weak monsoon pose risks to agriculture, rural demand and economic growth.
3. US growing season
AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill said a likely dry winter in the US Corn Belt could mean more irrigation is needed to start the growing season in spring.
