US job growth beats expectations in October; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%
SPY•US payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, above economists’ 65,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September.
1. Payrolls rise
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October after an upwardly revised gain of 60,000 in September. Economists had forecast a 65,000 increase, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%.
2. Labor market context
Economists estimated that the economy needed to add at least 40,000 jobs a month to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. Historically low layoffs and a recent rise in job openings have raised the prospect of labor market tightening, though economists and Fed officials have said the labor market poses no inflation risk.
3. Fed and economic outlook
The Fed kept its benchmark rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range last week while flagging elevated inflation. The report said economists expect a rate hike in December; October’s consumer inflation report, due next Tuesday, could offer further clues on monetary policy in early 2027.
