US job growth expected to pick up in October, with moderation in wage gains
SPY•US payrolls were forecast to rise by 65,000 in October after a 29,000 gain in September, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.2%. Annual wage growth was projected to ease to 2.9% from 3.0%.
1. Payrolls and unemployment
Economists surveyed expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 65,000 in October, following a 29,000 gain in September. The unemployment rate was forecast to remain at 4.2%, though some economists said it could slip to 4.1%.
2. Wage growth forecast
Average hourly earnings were expected to rise 0.3% in October after increasing 0.1% in September. Annual wage growth was forecast to slow to 2.9% from 3.0%, its first reading below 3% since May 2021.
3. Labor market outlook
Employment gains have averaged 68,000 per month this year, while economists estimate the economy needs at least 40,000 monthly jobs to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. Economists expected consumer spending and the broader economy to slow in the fourth quarter and into 2027; the Federal Reserve last week held its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4.00% and said inflation remained elevated.
