US job growth expected to slow in September; unemployment rate likely steady
SPY•US nonfarm payrolls were forecast to rise by 90,000 in September, down from 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate was expected to hold at 4.1% for a third straight month. Wages were forecast to increase 3.2% year over year after a 3.1% gain in August.
1. Payroll growth forecast to ease
Economists expected September nonfarm payrolls to increase by 90,000, with estimates ranging from 35,000 to 180,000. They expected August’s 162,000 gain, the largest in five months, to be revised down; one economist said seasonal adjustments may have exaggerated the increase.
2. Wages and labor supply
Average wages were forecast to rise 3.2% year over year, compared with 3.1% in August. Economists estimated the economy needs 50,000 to 80,000 jobs a month to keep pace with growth in the working-age population, and said worker retirements and the administration’s immigration crackdown had reduced labor supply.
3. Rate outlook
The article said economists saw no signs that the US-Israel war with Iran was yet disrupting the labor market, though they expected energy prices and supply-chain strains to begin having an impact by year-end. Financial markets were pricing in about a 28% chance of another central bank rate increase at its October 27-28 meeting, down from about 69% a week earlier.
