U.S. natural gas futures fell about 4% to a near three-month low on Tuesday on record output and forecasts for cooler weather and lower demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Prices were also depressed by a roughly 4% drop in oil futures on hopes of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, lower gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and ample amounts of gas in storage.
On its second-to-last day as the front-month, gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 10.5 cents, or 3.8%, to settle at $2.662 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since April 29.
That kept the front-month, which lost about 9% over the past four days, in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row for the first time since mid-July.
Futures for September, which will soon be the front-month contract, were down about 3% at $2.70 per mmBtu.
In a sign that the market is not too worried about gas supplies this winter, the premium of futures for March over April 2027 NGH27-J27 fell to a record low of around 14 cents per mmBtu.
Analysts have said March, the last month of the peak winter heating season when utilities need to pull gas out of storage to meet demand, should never trade below April, the first month of the summer air conditioning season when energy firms produce enough gas to meet demand and inject fuel into storage for the next winter.
The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006.
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