US natgas prices ease on record output ahead of storage report

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 111.7 bcfd this week to 112.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 17.2 bcfd so far in July due in part to maintenance at Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas, down from 17.4 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas. Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran this year. Around the world, gas was trading around $20 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $21 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June and the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Analysts said gas inventories have remained higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since the spring when the weather was mild, allowing energy firms to stockpile more gas than usual. Now, as they wait for a federal report on Thursday, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage likely rose to 6.6% above normal during the week ended July 24, up from 6.4% above normal during the previous week. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL That inventory surplus has continued due in part to near-record output despite weeks of above-normal temperatures so far this summer. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 14, forcing power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants. | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Week ended Jul 24 Forecast | Week ended Jul 17 Actual | Year ago Jul 24 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 24 | | | U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +35 | +32 | +44 | +26 | | | U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,091 | 3,056 | 3,116 | 2,899 | | | U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.6% | +6.4% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | | Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.71 | 2.72 | 3.30 | 3.62 | 3.79 | | Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 19.74 | 20.24 | 9.98 | 11.94 | 18.51 | | Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 21.43 | 21.33 | 12.53 | 12.24 | 18.12 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | | | | | | | Total Two-Week Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm | | U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | | U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 237 | 238 | 209 | 209 | 196 | | U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 238 | 239 | 211 | 211 | 200 | | | | | | | | | LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | | | | | | | | Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | | U.S. Supply (bcfd) | | | | | | | U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.7 | 111.5 | 111.6 | 108.3 | 101.4 | | U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.6 | N/A | 8.2 | | U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | Total U.S. Supply | 117.8 | 118.9 | 119.2 | N/A | 109.6 | | | | | | | | | U.S. Demand (bcfd) | | | | | | | U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.3 | | U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.6 | | U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 16.9 | 17.3 | 17.2 | 15.0 | 11.0 | | U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.7 | | U.S. Residential | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | | U.S. Power Plant | 46.9 | 47.5 | 48.6 | 50.2 | 46.1 | | U.S. Industrial | 21.6 | 21.6 | 21.7 | 22.2 | 21.8 | | U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | | U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | | U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | | Total U.S. Consumption | 84.2 | 84.9 | 86.1 | 88.2 | 84.9 | | Total U.S. Demand | 110.4 | 111.7 | 112.5 | N/A | 104.8 | | | | | | | | | N/A = Not Available | | | | | | | | | | | | | | U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | | Apr-Sep | 83 | 83 | 76 | 74 | 83 | | Jan-Jul | 90 | 90 | 78 | 76 | 77 | | Oct-Sep | 93 | 93 | 80 | 77 | 76 | | | | | | | | | U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | | | | | | | | Week ended July 31 | Week ended July 24 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | | Wind | 8 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 10 | | Solar | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | | Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | | Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | | Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Natural Gas | 44 | 44 | 40 | 42 | 41 | | Coal | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 17 | | Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | | | | | | | | | SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | | | | | | | Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | | Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.58 | 2.65 | 3.20 | 3.52 | 3.72 | | Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.93 | 2.05 | 2.87 | 3.53 | 3.56 | | PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.16 | 3.08 | 3.45 | 3.42 | 5.47 | | Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.85 | 1.95 | 2.61 | 2.79 | 2.96 | | Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.47 | 2.49 | 2.95 | 3.23 | 3.60 | | Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.08 | 2.25 | 4.50 | 6.08 | 5.04 | | SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.84 | 3.89 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 5.71 | | Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.76 | 1.84 | 1.57 | 1.15 | 2.88 | | AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.08 | 1.13 | 0.51 | 1.13 | 2.13 | | | | | | | | | Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | | | | | | | Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) | | New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 47.00 | 51.31 | 89.06 | 77.12 | 61.67 | | PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 52.47 | 57.28 | 87.25 | 60.23 | 54.47 | | Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX | 65.12 | 65.49 | 52.17 | 44.81 | 68.96 | | Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 66.43 | 70.38 | 48.82 | 34.82 | 59.94 | | South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX | 51.40 | 50.94 | 33.95 | 28.44 | 53.02 | U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday on record output, lower flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and ample amounts of gas in inventory ahead of a weekly report expected to show another bigger-than-usual storage build. Analysts forecast energy firms added 35 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended July 24. That compares with an increase of 44 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 26 bcf for the period. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 3.9 cents, or 1.4%, to $2.686 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That pushed the front-month back into technically oversold territory for the third time in four days.

US natgas prices ease on record output ahead of storage report

Demand outlook and LNG flows

Supply remains near record highs

Storage, forecasts and market tables

Natural gas futures ease on record output and storage expectations

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	Week ended Jul 24 Forecast	Week ended Jul 17 Actual	Year ago Jul 24	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jul 24
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+35	+32	+44	+26
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,091	3,056	3,116	2,899
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.6%	+6.4%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.71	2.72	3.30	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	19.74	20.24	9.98	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	21.43	21.33	12.53	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Total Two-Week Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	1	1	2	2	4
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	237	238	209	209	196
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	238	239	211	211	200

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.7	111.5	111.6	108.3	101.4
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.1	7.4	7.6	N/A	8.2
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	117.8	118.9	119.2	N/A	109.6

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.3	2.2	2.2	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.0	7.3	7.1	N/A	6.6
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.9	17.3	17.2	15.0	11.0
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.7
U.S. Residential	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.6	3.6
U.S. Power Plant	46.9	47.5	48.6	50.2	46.1
U.S. Industrial	21.6	21.6	21.7	22.2	21.8
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.3	2.3	2.2	3.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	84.2	84.9	86.1	88.2	84.9
Total U.S. Demand	110.4	111.7	112.5	N/A	104.8

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	83	83	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	90	90	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	93	93	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended July 31	Week ended July 24	2025	2024	2023
Wind	8	7	11	11	10
Solar	8	8	6	5	4
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	44	40	42	41
Coal	18	18	18	16	17
Nuclear	17	17	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.58	2.65	3.20	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.93	2.05	2.87	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.16	3.08	3.45	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.85	1.95	2.61	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.47	2.49	2.95	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.08	2.25	4.50	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.84	3.89	3.70	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.76	1.84	1.57	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.08	1.13	0.51	1.13	2.13

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	47.00	51.31	89.06	77.12	61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	52.47	57.28	87.25	60.23	54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX	65.12	65.49	52.17	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	66.43	70.38	48.82	34.82	59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX	51.40	50.94	33.95	28.44	53.02