US Payrolls Expected to Climb 60,000 in March Boosting Construction Demand
Economists forecast nonfarm payrolls to rise by 60,000 in March after February’s 92,000 decline, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. Healthcare jobs should rebound following a 30,000-worker strike and construction payrolls are expected to recover, while retail spending ex-autos and gasoline climbed 0.3% in February.
1. Modest Payroll Rebound Forecast
Economists project nonfarm payrolls to increase by 60,000 in March following a 92,000 decline in February, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4%. This marks one of the sharpest monthly turnarounds since the pandemic-driven fluctuations of 2020.
2. Sectoral Drivers and Consumer Resilience
Healthcare employment is set to rebound after a 30,000-worker Kaiser strike ended, while construction and leisure sectors are expected to recover from weather-related slowdowns. Retail sales excluding autos and gasoline rose 0.3% in February, indicating sustained consumer demand for services and durable goods.
3. Implications for Machinery Demand and Monetary Policy
A strengthening construction labor market could support increased orders for heavy equipment makers, as firms resume delayed projects. However, rising energy costs and persistent inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to weigh modest hiring gains against price stability concerns when setting future rates.