US plan to ease shadow fleet sanctions unlikely to free up many tankers, analysts say
USO•A potential US plan to ease sanctions on shadow fleet tankers is unlikely to add much commercial capacity, analysts said; about 24 ships could rejoin global trade after accounting for age and excluding Iran’s National Tanker Company vessels. US Gulf Coast-to-Europe Aframax freight futures fell 30 points.
1. Limited tanker availability
A potential Trump administration plan to ease sanctions on vessels that transported sanctioned oil and fuel would likely have limited impact on tanker availability, traders and analysts said. The ships still face sanctions from other countries and often lack certification, insurance and maintenance needed for mainstream trade.
2. Only a small number may return
Kpler tracks about 160 supertankers under US sanctions, around 22% of the commercial fleet; about 46 are more than 20 years old. After accounting for age and excluding tankers owned by Iran’s National Tanker Company, Kpler said about 24 ships could rejoin global trade. The US Department of Energy said easing sanctions would not help Russia move oil or oil products.
3. Freight rates fall
US Gulf Coast-to-Europe Aframax freight futures fell 30 points, Scott Shelton of TP ICAP said. The lower freight rates narrowed the discount of US West Texas Intermediate crude to Brent to about $10.42, after high shipping costs had pushed it to $14.17 earlier in the week, its widest in more than five months.
