US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say
ITA•US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, citing delays in military readiness and Beijing's interest in Taiwan's 2028 election. They say Beijing may be more likely to consider force in 2028 and beyond if the Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term.
1. Assessment shifts
US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Xi Jinping's instructions for the military to be ready by 2027 to take the island by force if needed. Sources cited delays in military readiness linked to China's anti-corruption campaign and Beijing's interest in the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 election.
2. Election and readiness
Sources said Beijing may increasingly consider force in 2028 and beyond if the Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, particularly if President Lai Ching-te is reelected. One US official said that outcome would make 2028 “pretty sporty.” The sources said China's military did not accomplish as much as intended last year, and US officials suggested Chinese military officials were dissatisfied with readiness.
3. Taiwan response
Taiwan presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo Ya-hui said Taiwan would strengthen its self-defense and work with international democratic allies, including the US, to maintain the status quo and deter threats. China has not publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order, and its military exercises last year were smaller and less threatening than in several prior years, according to a US official.
