US toy prices surge ahead of holiday shopping season as tariffs, Iran war bite
MAT•US toy prices rose 6.6% over the past year and 4.2% in September from August, outpacing other consumer categories as tariffs and higher energy costs squeeze holiday budgets.
1. Toy prices climb
US toy prices rose 6.6% in the year through the latest consumer inflation data and 4.2% from August to September, seasonally adjusted. The increase exceeded gains in other consumer categories as Americans began preparing holiday gift lists.
2. Tariffs and energy costs
Toymakers remain exposed to US tariff policies because most toys sold in the country are manufactured in China. Higher oil prices linked to the Middle East war may also add to costs because toys are largely made from fossil-fuel-based plastics. Fitch Ratings’ David Silverman said commodity and shipping cost effects from the Iran conflict would persist for several quarters.
3. Industry cost pressures
US tariffs on Chinese goods fell from an initial 145% to 30% in May 2025, and the US and China agreed in late September to reduce tariffs on $30 billion each of imported and exported goods. Basic Fun CEO Jay Foreman said current shelf prices still reflect higher tariff rates used to price goods last year. Mattel’s CFO cited moderate inflationary pressures associated with events in the Middle East, while Hasbro’s CFO said the company had absorbed higher input costs.
